759
AGNT40 KWNM 211911
MIMATN
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1230 PM EST FRI 21 NOV 2008
.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.
DEVELOPING LOW PRES 150 NM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS WILL INTENSIFY
AND MOVE NE TNGT THEN TURN MORE N MOVING INTO NOVA SCOTIA EARLY
SAT. THE GFS STILL HAS AT LEAST 45 KT W OF THE LOW AS IT PASSES
E OF THE BALTIMORE CANYON TO THE HAGUE LINE ZONE. THE NAM
CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH THE OTHER MODELS LOWER. THE
GFS DEEPENS THE LOW FASTER THEN THE OTHER MODELS. THE GFS HAS
REMAINED CONSISTENT THE LAST THREE RUNS SO THE VERY COMFORTABLE
WITH THE TRACK. THIS ALSO MATCHES THE ECMWF...CANADIAN GLOBAL
AND THE SLIGHTLY FASTER UKMET.
FOR TONIGHT WILL BUMP UP WINDS OVER THE FAR E PORTION OF
BALTIMORE CANYON TO THE HAGUE LINE TO 50 KT AND PUT UP STORM
WARNING. THIS WILL BE HARD TO VERIFY BUT WITH CAA EXPECT WINDS
TO BE CLOSE.
FOR THE LONGER TERM THE GFS...UKMET AND CANADIAN BRING A TRIPLE
PT LOW INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS LATE MON NIGHT. THE LOW PULLS A
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION MON NIGHT AND TUE. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER
WITH THE FRONT NOT PUSHING INTO THE WATERS UNTIL TUE. PLAN TO
SPEED UP FRONT PER GFS AND HPC PROGS LEAVING THE ECMWF AS THE
OUTLIER. THIS WILL BRING GALE FORCE WINDS BACK INTO THE WATERS
MON NIGHT ENDING TUE. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE GULF OF MAINE
TUE THE MODEL INC WINDS TO OVER 50 KT. THE CANADIAN MODEL
SUPPORTS THE STORM WINDS. PLAN TO INC WINDS GULF OF MAINE AND
GEORGES BANK BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON STORM FORCE.
FOR SEAS WILL USE THE WNA MODEL. THE MODEL LOOKS REASONABLE WITH
DEVELOPING SYSTEM NOW OVER NT2. FOR TONIGHT WILL INC SEAS 2 TO 4
FT FOR BALTIMORE CANYON TO HAGUE LINE FOR BRIEF STORM WINDS.
WARNINGS/FORECAST CONFIDENCE
PRELIMINARY. ANY CHANGES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:
NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS
GULF OF MAINE
GALE TNGT INTO SUN..MDT TO HI CONFDC. GALE MON
AND TUE...MDT CONFDC.
GEORGES BANK...GALE TNGT INTO SUN
HI CONFDC. GALE MON AND
TUE...MDT CONFDC.
S OF NEW ENGLAND
GALE TNGT INTO SAT NITE..MDT TO HI CONFDC.
GALE MON INTO TUE...MDT CONFDC.
NT2 MID ATLC WATERS
HUDSON TO BALT CNYN...GALE TNGT INTO SAT
MDT TO HI CONFDC.
GALE MON INTO TUE...MDT CONFDC.
BALT CNYN TO HAGUE LINE...STORM TNGT
MDT CONFDC. GALE LATER
TNGT INTO SUN...HI CONFDC. GALE MON INTO TUE...MDT TO HI CONFDC.
BALT CNYN TO HATTERAS CNYN...GALE TNGT INTO SAT NITE
HI
CONFDC. GALE MON INTO TUE...MDT CONFDC.
HATTERAS CNYN TO CAPE FEAR...GALE TNGT INTO EARLY SAT
HI
CONFDC. GALE MON INTO EARLY TUE...LOW TO MDT CONFDC.
CAPE FEAR TO 31N...GALE TNGT INTO SAT
HI CONFDC.
.FORECASTER OSZAJCA. OCEAN FORECAST BRANCH.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page