413
AGPN40 KWNM 211950
MIMPAC
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1150 AM PST FRI 21 NOV 2008
.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.
NEAR TERM...THE MORNING QSCAT PASS SHOWS WIDESPREAD GALES
OCCURRING FROM FAR NW OREG OFF WTRS N INTO WASH OFF WTRS...
WITH STORM FORCE WINDS JUST W OF WASH WTRS ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...AND HURCN FORCE WINDS TO THE NW AND N OF VANCOUVER
ISLAND CLOSER TO THE LOW CENTER. THERE ARE A FEW HURNC FORCE
WINDS NOTED BY HI-RES QSCAT NR THE FRONT JUST W OF THE PZ5 WTRS.
THESE ARE LKLY CONTAMINATED BY THE HEAVIER RAINFALL IN THIS
REGION. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONT TO MOVE NE AND WKN LTR TDA
AND TONITE AS THE FRONT SLIDES E AND SE OVR ERN PZ5 AND ERN NOCAL
OFF WTRS...MOVG INLAND THIS EVE/EARLY TONITE. HIGH PRES WILL THEN
BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS PZ5 AND NOCAL WTRS SAT...AND THEN SHIFT
INLAND SAT NGT INTO SUN AHEAD OF THE NEXT WX SYSTEM. THERE ARE
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH REGARD TO THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS
NEXT LOW PRES SYSTEM WHICH WILL PASS W OF THE PZ5 WTRS SUN INTO
MON. THE 12Z GFS/12Z NAM ARE FURTHER TO THE E WITH THE TRACK OF
THE LOW...CLOSER TO 136W...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF/12 GEM/12Z UKMET
ARE FURTHER TO THE W...CLOSER TO 138-140W...WITH REGARD TO ITS
FCST TRACK. FOR NOW...WE WILL TREND THE FCST TOWARD THE 12Z GFS
AND 12Z NAM GUID FOR SUN INTO MON. AS A RESULT WE WILL HAVE THE
FOLLOWING HEADLINES FOR THE OFF WTRS THRU MON. FOR PZ5 WTRS...WE
WILL MAINTAIN STORM WNGS FOR N WASH WTRS EARLY TONITE...WITH
GALES ELSEWHERE OVR PZ5 WTRS EARLY TONITE. WE WILL BRING GALES
BACK INTO WRN WASH AND FAR NW OREG WTRS SAT NGT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
LOW PRES AREA. FOR SUN...GALES WILL PERSIST OVR NW OREG WTRS...
WITH GALES OVERSPREADING ALL WASH OFF WTRS...EXCEPT TO STORM
FORCE OVR NW WASH OFF WTRS JUST AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.
BECAUSE THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES ASSOC WITH THIS WX SYSTEM
CONFIDENCE LVLS IN THE WNG HEADLINES ARE LOW FOR PZ5 WTRS SAT
NITE AND SUN. AS FAR AS SEA HTS FOR THE NEAR TERM...THE 18Z RP1
OPC SEA STATE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE HIGHEST SEAS OCCURRING JUST W
AND N OF THE WASH OFF WTRS...WITH MAX SEA HTS NR 28FT OCCURRING
W OF WASH OFF WTRS...AND NR 35FT N OF VANCOUVER ISLAND. THESE
LVLS ARE SVRL FT ABV THE 12Z WAVE WATCH III MDL OUTPUT. WE WILL
CLSLY MONITOR THESE HIGHER SEAS TO SEE HOW THEY MIGHT IMPACT THE
NEAR TERM FCST INTO TONITE...ESPEC OVR PZ5 WTRS...AND MAKE THE
NECESSARY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE ONGOING FCST IF NEEDED. OTW...WE
WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE WW3 MDL GUID FOR MOST AREAS INTO MON
WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED FROM THE PREV FCST FOR CAL OFF
WTRS.
LONGER TERM...MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE FOR LT MON THRU WED OVR
THE E PAC OCN. A STALLING COLD FRONT OVR FAR ERN PZ5 INTO NOCAL
WTRS WILL LKLY DSIPT LTR MON/MON NGT AS LOW PRES FORMS NR OR JUST
W OF CAL OFF WTRS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SE THRU TUE...
BEFORE MOVG INLAND WED. A HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM PZ5
WTRS S BEHIND THIS LOW DURING WED...AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES PZ5 WTRS FROM THE W. THE 12Z GFS APPEARS TO BE MORE OF
AN OUTLIER REGARDING THIS LOW AS IT DEEPENS IT AND LKLY KEEPS IT
TOO FAR W THRU TUE. THE 12Z GFS OPERATIONAL RUN ONLY HAS SUPPORT
FROM 3-4 OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...THEREFORE LEADING TO BLW
NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN ITS SOLUTION. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS BETTER
SUPPORT AS IT IS SIMILAR TO THE 12Z UKMET AND ALSO THE LATEST HPC
MED RANGE GUIDANCE FOR LTR MON THRU WED. THEREFORE...WE WILL STAY
CLOSER TO THE 12Z ECWMF/12Z UKMET/HPC MED RANGE GUID FOR THIS
TIME PD. THERE WILL BE NO HEADLINES AS A RESULT...AS BELIEVE IT
THERE ARE ANY GALES THEY WILL HOLD TO THE W OF THE CAL WTRS. AS
FAR AS THE SEA HT FCST IS CONCERNED...WE WILL GNRLY SHAVE A FEW
FT OFF THE 12Z WAVE WATCH III MDL FOR MANY AREAS AS IT IS BASED
ON THE 12Z GFS WHICH HAS STRONGER BL WINDS NR THE LOW IMPACTING
ESPEC CAL OFF WTRS LT MON THRU TUE.
WARNINGS/FORECAST CONFIDENCE
PRELIMINARY. ANY CHANGES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE.
PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS
CAPE FLATTERY TO CAPE LOOKOUT
STORM N PART AND GALE ELSEWHERE
EARLY TONITE...MDT TO HI CONFDC. GALE SAT NGT INTO SUN...LOW TO
MDT CONFDC...WITH STORM NW PART SUN...LOW CONFDC.
CAPE LOOKOUT TO POINT ST GEORGE...GALE EARLY TNGT...MAINLY N
MDT CONFDC. GALE LATE SAT NITE INTO SUN...MAINLY NW PART...LOW
CONFDC.
PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS
PT ST GEORGE TO PT ARENA
NONE.
PT ARENA TO PT CONCEPTION
NONE.
PT CONCEPTION TO GUADALUPE ISLAND
NONE.
.FORECASTER MILLS. OCEAN FORECAST BRANCH.
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