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FXHW01 KWNH 211206
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
705 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2008
VALID 00Z SAT NOV 22 2008 - 00Z SAT NOV 29 2008
ISLAND TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE INTO THE WEEKEND AND
SETTLE FROM THE ESE AS A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROF/CLOSED LOW DIGS SEWD
TO NEAR THE ISLANDS. THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND SHOW A PERIOD WITH SW FLOW ALOFT
OVERRUNNING SE SURFACE FLOW WITH APPROACH OF THE MID-UPPER LEVEL
LOW/TROF. THIS WILL PULL DEEP MOISTURE NWD FROM THE ICTZ TOWARDS
THE ISLANDS TO FUEL A THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ON
S-SE FACING SLOPES. THIS SOLUTION STILL SEEMS CONSISTENT WITH
ENSEMBLES AND LATEST WATER VAPOR AND EXPERIMENTAL BLENDED
PRECIPITABLE WATER SATELLITE LOOPS.
THERE ALSO REMAINS DECENT AGREEMENT TODAY AMONG GUIDANCE ON THE
MID-UPPER LEVEL TROF/LOW THEN DRIFTING WWD AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS
MON/TUE LEAVING RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE ISLANDS. THIS WILL END THE
PRIMARY RAINFALL THREAT AND USHER A RETURN TO A MORE MODERATE
TRADE AND PRIMARILY WINDWARD TERRAIN LIMITED RAINFALL PATTERN
THROUGH MID-LATE NEXT WEEK.
SCHICHTEL
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