181
FXHW40 KWBC 201330
PMDHCO
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
830AM EST THU NOV 20 2008
MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID FOR DECEMBER 2008
SST ANOMALIES NEAR HAWAII NOW AROUND ZERO DEGREE C.
FOR JANUARY 2008 THROUGH THE END OF OCTOBER - RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS
WERE:
- LIHUE AIRPORT 14.36 INCHES (48 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- HONOLULU AIRPORT 4.18 INCHES (32 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- KAHULUI AIRPORT 3.79 INCHES (28 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- HILO AIRPORT 90.26 INCHES (90 PERCENT OF NORMAL).
NCEP MODELS PREDICT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR HILO FOR DECEMBER 2008.
NCEP TOOLS GIVE NO INDICATION OF EITHER ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR
HAWAII FOR DECEMBER 2008.
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
HILO B40 72.4 0.5 EC 5.8 8.3 12.0
KAHULUI EC 73.6 0.5 EC 1.3 2.3 2.9
HONOLULU EC 74.5 0.7 EC 1.1 1.5 2.9
LIHUE EC 73.2 0.5 EC 2.2 3.6 4.7
SEASONAL OUTLOOK DISCUSSION VALID FOR DJF 2008 TO DJF 2009
REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST AND
DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS ARE
PRESENT IN THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN. EQUATORIAL SST ANOMALIES ARE
NEAR-AVERAGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE PACIFIC OCEAN - WITH SMALL AREAS OF NEGATIVE
SST ANOMALIES PRESENT IN PARTS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC. SUBSURFACE OCEANIC HEAT
CONTENT ANOMALIES BECAME LESS NEGATIVE DUE TO THE EASTWARD SHIFT OF POSITIVE
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES AT THERMOCLINE DEPTH TO ~160W - BUT ANOMALIES REMAINED
NEGATIVE IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PACIFIC. THE CUMULATIVE EFFECTS OF THE MJO
WERE ABOVE-AVERAGE CONVECTION OVER INDONESIA - AND ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY
WINDS - ENHANCED UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS - AND SUPPRESSED CONVECTION OVER
THE WESTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. A MAJORITY OF THE SST FORECASTS INDICATE A
CONTINUATION OF ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS INTO THE FIRST HALF OF 2009. BASED ON
CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS AND RECENT TRENDS - ENSO-NEUTRAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY 2009.
NCEP MODELS PREDICT A TENDENCY FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR HILO FOR DJF
2008. A TENDENCY FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE IS EXPEXTED FOR HILO FROM MAM TO
AMJ 2009 - KAHULUI AND HONOLULU FROM JFM TO AMJ 2009 - AND LIHUE FROM DJF TO
AMJ 2009. MODELS ALSO PREDICT ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII FROM JFM TO
MAM 2009.
HILO
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
DJF 2008 B40 72.0 0.4 EC 20.1 27.2 35.9
JFM 2009 EC 71.8 0.4 A40 23.9 30.9 39.4
FMA 2009 EC 72.1 0.4 A40 29.5 35.9 43.1
MAM 2009 A40 72.8 0.5 A40 28.3 34.9 42.6
AMJ 2009 A40 73.9 0.4 EC 22.0 26.8 32.2
MJJ 2009 EC 75.0 0.4 EC 19.1 23.1 27.8
JJA 2009 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 19.5 24.2 29.6
JAS 2009 EC 76.3 0.4 EC 22.2 27.1 32.7
ASO 2009 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 23.4 27.0 31.0
SON 2009 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 25.8 31.7 38.4
OND 2009 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.1 33.1 41.3
NDJ 2009 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 25.5 32.9 41.7
DJF 2009 EC 72.0 0.4 EC 20.1 27.2 35.9
KAHULUI
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
DJF 2008 EC 72.5 0.5 EC 6.8 9.0 11.7
JFM 2009 A40 72.4 0.5 A40 6.0 8.1 10.6
FMA 2009 A40 73.2 0.5 A40 4.3 6.0 8.1
MAM 2009 A40 74.4 0.6 A40 2.9 4.2 5.8
AMJ 2009 A40 75.8 0.6 EC 1.0 1.8 3.1
MJJ 2009 EC 77.3 0.6 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5
JJA 2009 EC 78.6 0.5 EC 0.8 1.1 1.3
JAS 2009 EC 79.1 0.5 EC 0.9 1.2 1.5
ASO 2009 EC 78.9 0.5 EC 1.3 1.8 2.5
SON 2009 EC 77.8 0.5 EC 2.2 3.1 4.3
OND 2009 EC 75.9 0.5 EC 4.2 5.7 7.6
NDJ 2009 EC 73.8 0.5 EC 5.7 7.8 10.4
DJF 2009 EC 72.5 0.5 EC 6.8 9.0 11.7
HONOLULU
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
DJF 2008 EC 73.5 0.4 EC 5.0 6.9 9.1
JFM 2009 A40 73.5 0.4 A40 4.1 5.8 8.0
FMA 2009 A40 74.5 0.4 A40 3.4 4.6 6.1
MAM 2009 A40 76.0 0.4 A40 2.4 3.2 4.3
AMJ 2009 A40 77.7 0.4 EC 1.2 1.8 2.6
MJJ 2009 EC 79.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 2.0
JJA 2009 EC 80.7 0.4 EC 0.8 1.2 1.6
JAS 2009 EC 81.2 0.4 EC 1.1 1.5 2.0
ASO 2009 EC 81.0 0.5 EC 1.7 2.6 3.8
SON 2009 EC 79.6 0.5 EC 2.7 4.0 5.9
OND 2009 EC 77.3 0.5 EC 4.5 6.2 8.4
NDJ 2009 EC 73.8 0.5 EC 5.7 7.8 10.4
DJF 2009 EC 73.5 0.4 EC 5.0 6.9 9.1
LIHUE
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
DJF 2008 A40 72.4 0.4 EC 8.6 11.4 14.7
JFM 2009 A40 72.4 0.4 A40 8.0 10.8 14.1
FMA 2009 A40 73.1 0.4 A40 7.5 9.6 12.0
MAM 2009 A40 74.4 0.4 A40 7.3 9.2 11.4
AMJ 2009 A40 75.9 0.4 EC 5.3 7.0 9.0
MJJ 2009 EC 77.5 0.4 EC 4.6 6.2 8.0
JJA 2009 EC 78.8 0.3 EC 4.6 5.6 6.6
JAS 2009 EC 79.3 0.3 EC 5.1 6.2 7.4
ASO 2009 EC 79.0 0.3 EC 6.3 8.0 10.0
SON 2009 EC 77.7 0.3 EC 9.1 10.9 12.9
OND 2009 EC 75.6 0.3 EC 10.7 13.3 16.2
NDJ 2009 EC 73.6 0.3 EC 9.8 12.5 15.8
DJF 2009 EC 72.4 0.4 EC 8.6 11.4 14.7
FORECASTER: LUKE HE
NOTE - ON SEPTEMBER 18 2003...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) MADE A CHANGE
TO PROBABILITIES EXPRESSED FOR THE ABOVE NORMAL...NEAR NORMAL...AND BELOW
NORMAL CATEGORIES IN ONE-MONTH AND THREE-MONTH OUTLOOKS. CPC WILL NO LONGER
EXPRESS PROBABILITIES AS ANOMALIES FROM 33 PERCENT. INSTEAD WE USE THE ACTUAL
PROBABILITES FOR THE CATEGORIES. PLEASE SEE THE FOLLOWING LINK FOR MORE DETAILS:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/90DAY/SERVICE_CHANGE_LL.HTML
NOTE - EC (EQUAL CHANCES) HAS REPLACED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES) AT
THOSE LOCATIONS WHERE THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN.
CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY
ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE
TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT
OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NORMAL - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK.
FOR EXAMPLE -A37 MEANS A 37% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B36 MEANS A 36% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT
TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS
SPECIFIED THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOST LIKELY CATEGORY CANNOT BE PREDICTED.
NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID
PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS
SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE
ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THU DEC 18, 2008
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