253
FXUS04 KWBC 212200
QPFPFD
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
459 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2008
FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID NOV 22/0000 UTC THRU NOV 25/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
DAY 1...
18Z UPDATE...
THE 18Z MODELS MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES SO THE QPF UPDATES MADE
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR SHORT TERM TRENDS FROM RADAR/SATELLITE.
..PAC NW INTO THE NRN GT BASIN
NEXT S/WV OFF THE PAC NW COAST WILL MOVE RAPIDLY ACRS THE REGION
THIS EVENING WHILE QUICKLY WEAKENING NEWD INTO SW CANADA DURING
THE OVERNIGHT PD. AS A RESULT..EXPECT A BRIEF SHOT OF MDT
PCPN..PRIMARILY ACRS THE NRN OR/WA COASTAL REGIONS AND CASCADES
WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS SPREADING EWD INTO THE EXTREME NRN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AS DYNAMICS WEAKEN RAPIDLY. WEAK POST
FRONTAL ONSHORE FLOW COULD PRODUCE SOME ADDITIONAL SHWR ACTIVITY
ALONG THE COASTAL RANGES/CASCADES...BUT SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT
GIVEN LIMITED MSTR AND WEAK ONSHORE COMPONENT. NAM/GFS AMOUNTS
WERE SIMILAR AND GENLY ACCEPTED WITH SOME .25 TO .50 INCH AMOUNTS
OVER FAVORED TERRAIN.
..GTLKS
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS IN NWLY FLOW SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AS
HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS BUILDS W TO EAST OVER THE REGION AND
INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER. STAYED CLOSE TO VERY SIMILAR NAM/GFS
AMOUNTS WHICH FAVOR HEAVIER SNOW BANDS OVER NW PA/SW NY WHERE NW
FLOW WILL GET MULTI LAKE MSTR CONTRIBUTION. SEE QPFHSD FOR MORE
DETAILS ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
..NRN PLAINS SEWD INTO IA/SRN MN
5H TROF OVER THE NRN ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO DROP SEWD ACRS THE NRN
PLAINS..EVENTUALLY SHEARING LATE IN THE PD INTO INCREASING
CONFLUENT UPR FLOW OVER THE MIDWEST REGION. SYSTEM IS RATHER
MSTR STARVED BUT DECENT S/WV LIFT AND WAA CONTRIBUTION EARLY IN
THE PD COULD PRODUCE A STRIPE OF .10 TO .20 INCH THRU PARTS OF SD
SEWD INTO NW IA..WHERE AGAIN MODELS SHOW REASONABLY GOOD
AGREEMENT.
..MAINE
WITH CLOSING OFF OF MID/UPR LEVEL LOW OVER THE NE AND RAPID
CYCLOGENESIS WITH LOW PRES EXPECTED TO LIFT NEWD TOWARD NOVA
SCOTIA..EXPECT COMMA HEAD BAND TO BRUSH DOWNEAST/NRN MAINE. BOTH
THE 12Z UKMET AND CANADIAN GLOB SUPPORT GFS/NAM IN KEEPING AMOUNTS
HERE .10 INCH OR LESS..SO SEE LITTLE REASON TO DEVIATE.
ELSEWHERE..LIGHT SHWRS EXPECTED WITH WEAK SE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACRS S
TX AS WELL AS ALONG THE CNTL/SRN ERN COAST OF FL WITH COOL POST
FRONTAL NELY FLOW. IN BOTH CASES..AREAL AVG AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE .25 INCH OR LESS.
DAYS 2 AND 3...
..PAC NW
THE 1200 UTC ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE GFS IN THAT IT IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH SPLITTING THE WLYS OVR THE ERN PAC. AS A
RESULT..MOST ENERGY IN THE NRN SPLIT IS DIRECTED INTO BC WITH THE
ECMWF A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING HGT FALLS AND A WEAK
FRONTAL BAND SWD. AVGD THE DIFFERENCES BTWN THE MODELS FOR THE
FCST TOWARDS THE END OF DAY3.
..CONCERNING THE EVOLVING CLOSED UPPER LOW OVR THE GREAT LAKES
IT IS NOT UNTIL DAY3 THAT WE WILL SEE SGFNT PCPN WITH THIS SYSTEM
AS IT INTENSIFIES RAPIDLY THRU THE PD RESULTING IN CYCLOGENESIS
OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHICH RESULTS IN THE ASOCTD FRONTAL BAND
PRESSING ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE NATION. THERE ARE SOME SGFNT
DIFFERENCES CONCERNING PCPN ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BAND
GIVEN THAT THE GFS IS ABOUT THE FASTEST OF MODELS WITH THE FRONT
AND HENCE THE PCPN WITH IT. MEANWHILE..THE ECMWF FRONTAL BAND QPF
APPEARS TOO SLOW BASED ON ITS OWN MASS FIELD DETAILS INCLDG MSTR
PARAMETERS AND PSN OF THE FRONT. BY SLOWING DOWN THE GFS
SCENARIO..AND PLACING THE ECMWF PCPN MORE LINE WITH ITS MASS FIELD
DETAILS..THE MANUAL QPF WINDS UP BEING A REASONABLE COMPROMISE
SOLUTION BTWN THOSE MODELS QPFS. FINALLY..THE ECMWF WAS A LITTLE
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PCPN AMTS INVOF THE CLOSING OFF UPPER CNTR
WHICH SEEMED REASONABLE GIVEN THE STG MID TO UPPER LVL FORCING
INVOLVED WITH THAT PROCESS.
..WRN GULF COAST REGION
MODELS INITIATE LGT SHWR ACTVTY INVOF OF ERN TX AND ON DAY1 WHICH
THEN DVLPS NWD THRU DAY2 TOWARDS THE LWR MS VLY AS SUPPORTING MSTR
CHANNELS NWD ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE ERN U.S. HI CELL. BLENDED A
LGT QPF SOLUTION FOR THAT AREA.
..FL.
LLVL ELYS SHOULD AID THE PRODUCTION OF GNLY LGT SHWRS ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF FL WHERE WEAK RT ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS WILL
AID THE LIFTING PROCESS.
SULLIVAN/KORTY
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
24HR QP VT 23/00Z
0.01 493652 491646 489641 484639 474627 468626 464628 458632
452635 439643 426653 420657 414661 408666 404667 392676
387684 385690 383695 383702 383709 383711 381714 374719
368725 364730 361736 360742 360746 361751 365758 368761
374763 379766 384769 388767 388764 386756 383752 390757
393734 398730 404726 407724 409720 410715 411707 414702
416701 419703 422704 427702 437693 444688 449686 452691
452695 450700 446705 442707 439710 436714 434720 435727
434731 437734 441736 438747 442751 449747 452742 454735
457730 460724 469710 470707 474703 480699 483697 485689
486683 488675 491669 492660 493652
0.01 523261 514226 514218 517214 525222 530223 534222 536219
538212 539205 537194 535186 533180 525166 522163 520159
517153 510150 504145 495138 491134 484131 471127 466125
462126 457131 454136 450140 445142 442141 437144 435150
432161 431168 433173 439177 439183 437189 437193 438197
440203 444208 450203 456194 464185 470183 475185 479187
480192 478196 475198 466202 461204 456206 445212 436210
432210 429207 424204 421204 420207 422212 423218 421225
416231 410234 405238 405241 409243 412247 421257 429260
437261 450259 456260 463262 477267 488274 497284 502288
509289 512287 516283
0.01 478865 477851 474844 472841 466835 461828 459819 453806
448801 444798 440794 439790 438785 438779 439769 437762
434754 430750 426750 423753 422756 418763 415762 411763
408767 405772 401778 396782 388789 383796 382799 383803
387801 391799 393799 398800 402802 407805 410809 411814
413819 415821 419823 424824 430825 434828 440836 443843
443850 453858 456861 458866 461873 462881 463886 466888
468888 473886 475882 477875 478865
0.01 472051 470041 468033 463021 460012 459003 460988 459978
457967 454961 450956 445943 438933 428925 424922 419920
414920 413922 412927 412934 410941 413962 416970 419974
423977 422984 422988 424992 425997 428005 432011 439020
443024 448029 454039 458044 463049 467052 470052 472051
0.01 303810 302807 299805 294804 285801 276798 267793 256794
250798 247801 244811 244815 246817 252816 256813 262810
273809 277808 281809 287812 291814 297815 300814 303811
303810
0.01 286971 285965 281962 270962 259959 250956 247955 243956
240958 236962 233967 233970 237975 243983 251986 260990
264989 268986 271983 273983 278981 283977 285973 286971
0.25 474665 473661 471658 468656 466655 463655 460656 457658
455660 452662 450665 449667 452670 455672 457672 459673
460673 464673 467674 470673 473670 474665 474665
0.25 531209 531199 526188 524183 519175 513170 508167 505167
501168 500173 503181 508188 513194 517200 521207 526211
530212 531209
0.25 519268 519264 517258 515247 511237 507228 502218 497210
489204 484203 481204 474209 468214 464216 461216 453218
449220 447220 447223 452224 456226 457231 454235 453240
455244 473251 484258 489264 496271 502276 505276 509271
515272 519268
0.25 490238 490233 489229 486225 484223 478221 473219 469220
466223 462229 467234 470234 472232 477231 480232 482235
484240 490238
0.25 446818 442812 435806 430801 427794 423787 418789 415792
414795 415800 421805 426807 433812 437816 442820 446818
0.25 469153 468152 465152 464153 467155 469153
0.25 262972 260968 257965 254964 249963 243964 241966 242972
244975 246977 250980 253979 256977 258975 262972
0.50 514262 513250 508239 504229 499218 494212 491210 485208
482209 479213 481217 485219 489224 492229 494235 496245
497253 499258 502261 505262 511263 514262
0.50 480244 480239 479236 476236 474237 474242 475244 477245
480244
24HR QP VT 24/00Z
0.01 537206 538199 538193 535186 533184 530180 526169 522163
515161 506159 501158 497154 495144 492138 487131 481127
476126 472128 469135 468142 472145 477146 480146 476148
472147 465144 459143 457145 455145 452142 448143 444143
444137 443134 441134 438136 436139 435144 436151 439159
442162 446165 452163 457158 462158 466160 472165 477167
481165 486161 490161 496169 500177 503183 505188 508191
515195 519201 522210 524213 529214 532215 534210 537206
0.01 476688 475680 471678 468676 463674 458675 457679 458684
459687 457690 457694 454697 452703 442710 437715 436719
436722 437727 440729 444731 449730 454728 458721 462713
465707 468703 475694 476688
0.01 523261 520255 514252 509236 501224 497213 490208 483208
478209 477211 477215 478217 485222 489227 493239 486246
484251 485254 486263 491275 494282 496285 500288 508293
511293
0.01 491865 491859 490854 487843 481828 478822 474816 465805
456795 452804 452812 450821 449826 450834 452839 456844
465853 470857 473863 477868 482870 486870 489868 491865
0.01 447742 442739 436737 429738 426747 426756 427764 431770
435777 440771 441768 442764 442759 443754 447747 447742
0.01 428793 428789 428785 423780 420777 416775 412775 409773
406774 405776 408783 410790 412795 416800 419802 424802
426799 428793
0.01 455114 457104 457098 456093 458080 456072 453066 451059
447060 444063 440063 436064 433069 434076 438080 440083
438085 434089 428092 427100 423103 422108 424110 429113
441117 445122 449126 452122 455114 455114
0.01 373949 374943 372939 365937 357936 353929 351923 348920
345918 341919 333926 329931 327934 324937 319941 315943
313947 310949 305949 293945 285943 278944 265952 254961
249962 245964 241969 240973 242977 248981 255984 258984
263983 268982 275983 289987 298986 306983 317973 323969
331968 346969 353967 361962 369955 373949
0.01 306812 304807 300804 291798 283795 273793 262794 256796
253801 253805 258807 267810 272811 277813 286815 296817
299818 302816 306812
0.25 514281 518273 518269 518263 514257 512254 507250 505253
505257 506263 504264 501263 496260 494263 494268 497272
499277 501280 507285 510284 514281
0.25 297973 299970 296968 293966 289965 284962 281961 276962
274966 274967 277971 280972 286973 291974 294974 297973
24HR QP VT 25/00Z
0.01 539204 536196 532189 525178 519173 512175 509179 506183
504188 506192 508199 510207 510211 509217 503217 495214
492216 490220 488224 481225 476227 468235 466239 464240
459242 448243 437247 432249 428254 427259 430265 434270
436272 439272 445273 451272 461272 464272 466274 472279
478283 485286 493288 500289 505290 511289 512289
0.01 508938 507932 506930 502926 493918 489916 483913 479910
477902 478896 480891 485879 488867 487853 485843 482834
477817 474809 473801 472794 471783 469774 465767 462760
456750 451740 454728 454724 452719 451717 448718 446721
444728 435737 432744 431749 430752 427750 424747 418744
408742 398744 386749 375757 366764 360770 353778 339794
334801 330807 327813 320831 315848 311868 309892 303913
299922 295931 286943 282947 278949 271958 271964 272968
274970 281975 285978 289980 300979 311976 319973 325970
328968 332964 337964 347968 351969 358969 362966 366962
373957 377955 382951 385950 390946 396940 405929 411919
415909 419904 424903 429902 434899 444893 452886 455889
455893 454900 452907 451918 453926 454930 456933 463942
470951 478955 486957 492957 494955 504945 507942 508938
0.01 445784 444780 443776 442772 441769 439765 438764 436767
437771 438775 439779 441782 443785 444786 445784
0.01 301807 302804 300801 298799 292797 279793 270791 264791
259793 255798 248804 244811 243817 243824 246825 248822
252817 257806 261808 266809 272808 285811 293812 297811
301808 301807
0.25 533220 533215 533210 530206 530204 528200 525198 522198
520201 519206 521211 523214 526217 527218 529219 532220
533220
0.25 520274 521266 520259 518253 514243 510236 503229 498227
497230 496236 497240 496242 491241 487241 481243 468249
463252 458258 462261 466263 474266 487274 496279 504282
511282 517277 520274
0.25 463832 462826 461823 459821 454820 451822 448825 440827
429829 424828 420826 415822 412816 411809 411801 411794
411790 409786 405780 401779 394780 386785 375792 368801
362805 358806 357804 353804 351807 346812 343817 341822
338834 339845 337852 334859 330869 331874 334878 335887
334892 329905 326917 325923 322928 321932 321939 323943
325944 333940 341933 350926 354924 359924 363923 366919
366916 369903 374879 377874 381868 392861 398857 404855
410857 412862 416868 421872 425872 429871 435867 442865
448861 455853 460839 463832
0.50 517273 519268 519263 517258 512246 509240 506236 503233
500235 499246 495247 489245 485248 481249 473251 469254
468257 469259 480264 488270 494275 499277 505279 510279
517273
0.50 376845 375839 373834 369835 366836 361841 357847 351858
349867 348873 351880 349882 347881 347883 345888 343892
341901 342904 344906 356911 359910 361906 362902 362898
362890 361880 363872 365868 373854 375849 376845
1.00 516267 516263 514258 511251 505244 504245 505258 504263
501261 499258 494251 490251 488255 487260 492268 496272
500274 506273 510270 512270 516267
1.50 502271 501268 499265 498264 496259 495258 493258 494263
495265 497269 500271 502271
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