875
FXUS25 KWNC 201330
PMDDRO
US DROUGHT MONITOR DISCUSSION
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
830 AM EST THU 20 NOV 2008
NATIONAL DROUGHT SUMMARY NOVEMBER 18, 2008
THE EAST AND SOUTH: WIDESPREAD 1- TO 2-INCH RAINFALL TOTALS,
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS, FELL ACROSS THE EAST, RESULTING
IN A MODEST CONTRACTION OF THE DROUGHT AREA. IN ADDITION, RAIN
DURING THE MOISTURE RECHARGE SEASON AND DIMINISHING AGRICULTURAL
IMPACTS RESULTED IN THE REMOVAL OF THE A /AGRICULTURAL/
DESIGNATION FROM THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE EASTERN DROUGHT AREA.
AS OF NOVEMBER 16, THE U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE RATED 73
PERCENT OF OHIOS WINTER WHEAT IN GOOD TO EXCELLENT CONDITION,
ALONG WITH 81 PERCENT OF NORTH CAROLINAS CROP. HOWEVER, THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS CORE AREA OF EXTREME AND EXCEPTIONAL
DROUGHT /D3 AND D4/ REMAINED VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT AND PERSISTENT HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS. HEAVY RAIN
/GENERALLY 2 TO 4 INCHES/ FELL ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA,
ELIMINATING SEVERE DROUGHT /D2/ AND REDUCING THE COVERAGE OF
ABNORMAL DRYNESS AND MODERATE DROUGHT /D0 AND D1/. THE COVERAGE
OF D0 WAS ALSO REDUCED FROM EASTERN MARYLAND INTO SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY. A SEPARATE AREA OF D0 ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
WAS REDUCED SHARPLY IN SIZE DUE TO AS MUCH AS 2 TO 5 INCHES OF
RAIN IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE STATE. THE GREAT LAKES
REGION: RAIN AND MELTED SNOW RESULTED IN 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH OF
LIQUID EQUIVALENT TOTALS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
DROUGHT AREA STRETCHING FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TO UPPER MICHIGAN. THE EXTENT OF ABNORMAL DRYNESS /D0/ AND
MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT /D1 TO D2/ DECREASED VERY SLIGHTLY
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN AND EASTERN WISCONSIN.
IN ADDITION, THE DESIGNATION OF THE DROUGHT REGION WAS CHANGED
FROM AH TO H, REFLECTING THE INCREASE IN TOPSOIL MOISTURE
AND LACK OF AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS AT THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THE PLAINS: AN ASSESSMENT OF RAIN AND SNOW FROM EARLIER
STORMS RESULTED IN THE REMOVAL OF SEVERE DROUGHT /D2/
FROM ALL OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND EASTERNMOST MONTANA.
THAT REGION BECAME COMPLETELY FREE OF D2 FOR THE FIRST TIME
SINCE SEPTEMBER 25, 2007. ELSEWHERE IN MONTANA, THERE WAS
AN EXPANSION OF ABNORMAL DRYNESS /D0/ AND THE INTRODUCTION OF
MODERATE DROUGHT /D1/ ON THE HIGH PLAINS JUST EAST OF THE ROCKY
DIVIDE ACROSS THE STATES NORTHERN TIER. SOME D1 ALSO CREPT
INTO SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. MEANWHILE, THERE WERE NO CHANGES
TO THE HYDROLOGICAL DRYNESS AND MODERATE DROUGHT /D0 AND D1/
ON THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, BUT VERY HEAVY RAIN, WITH TOTALS
LOCALLY IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES, DENTED THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
DROUGHT AREA IN TEXAS. NEVERTHELESS, A CORE AREA OF EXTREME
DROUGHT /D3/ PERSISTED IN SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. THE WEST:
FLOODING SUBSIDED WEST OF THE CASCADES, WHERE NOVEMBER 1-18
RAINFALL TOTALS INCLUDED 14.43 INCHES /166 PERCENT OF NORMAL/
IN QUILLAYUTE, WASHINGTON, AND 9.94 INCHES /165 PERCENT/ IN
ASTORIA, OREGON. ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ENDED
AFTER NOVEMBER 12, ENOUGH MOISTURE SPILLED ACROSS THE CASCADES
TO RESULT IN A REDUCTION IN THE COVERAGE OF ABNORMAL DRYNESS
/D0/ IN NORTHEASTERN OREGON AND ADJOINING AREAS. ACROSS THE
INTERIOR NORTHWEST, RAIN RESULTED IN A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT
IN WINTER WHEAT CONDITION. BETWEEN NOVEMBER 9 AND 16, THE
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE REPORTED THAT THE PERCENTAGE OF
OREGONS WINTER WHEAT RATED IN VERY POOR TO POOR CONDITION
CHANGED FROM 29 TO 24 PERCENT. DURING THE SAME PERIOD,
WASHINGTONS WHEAT RATED VERY POOR TO POOR CHANGED FROM 32
TO 30 PERCENT. FARTHER SOUTH, HOWEVER, SHORT-TERM DRYNESS
INTENSIFIED IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AS A RESULT, D0 WAS
INTRODUCED IN PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN UTAH, SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO,
NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO, AND NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA. CALIFORNIAS
DROUGHT DEPICTION WAS NOT CHANGED, ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS REMAINED
RIPE FOR ADDITIONAL WILDFIRE ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.
MID-NOVEMBER WILDFIRES NEAR LOS ANGELES CHARRED MORE THAN
40,000 ACRES OF VEGETATION AND DAMAGED OR DESTROYED NEARLY
1,000'STRUCTURES. ON NOVEMBER 14-15, CONSECUTIVE DAILY-RECORD
HIGHS WERE REPORTED IN CALIFORNIA LOCATIONS SUCH AS BURBANK
/91 AND 90 DEGREES F/, SANTA ANA /94 DEGREES F BOTH DAYS/,
AND EL CAJON /94 AND 96 DEGREES F/. IN ADDITION, WINDS HOWLED
ACROSS CALIFORNIA, WITH GUSTS REACHING 75 MPH /ON NOVEMBER 13/
ON WHITAKER PEAK AND 78 MPH /ON NOVEMBER 15/ AT CAMP NINE.
THE LATTER GUST OCCURRED NEAR THE SITE OF THE SAYRE FIRE,
WHICH WAS ONE OF THREE MAJOR INCIDENTS /ALONG WITH THE FREEWAY
COMPLEX AND THE TEA FIRE/ TO AFFECT THE HILLS NEAR LOS ANGELES.
THE FREEWAY COMPLEX WAS THE LARGEST OF THE FIRES, WITH ACREAGE
APPROACHING 30,000 ACRES BY NOVEMBER 18, WHILE THE SAYRE FIRE
WAS THE MOST DESTRUCTIVE, WITH MORE THAN 600'STRUCTURES CONSUMED
BY FLAMES.
ALASKA AND HAWAII: RECENT HEAVY SNOWFALL BROUGHT AN END TO
ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS /D0/ ALONG ALASKAS ARCTIC COAST.
FOR EXAMPLE, BARROW RECEIVED 23.2 INCHES OF SNOW LAST
MONTH, BREAKING ITS OCTOBER 1925 RECORD OF 21.2 INCHES.
BARROW RECEIVED AN ADDITIONAL 6.8 INCHES DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF NOVEMBER, RANKING AS ITS SEVENTH-SNOWIEST NOVEMBER 1-15
PERIOD ON RECORD. MEANWHILE, RECENT SHOWERS ON KAUAI, HAWAII,
BROUGHT ENOUGH IMPROVEMENT IN PASTURE CONDITIONS TO WARRANT THE
REMOVAL OF SEVERE DROUGHT /D2/ FROM THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF
THE ISLAND. IN ADDITION, KAUAIS EXTENT OF MODERATE DROUGHT
/D1/ WAS REDUCED. ELSEWHERE IN HAWAII, HOWEVER, THE DROUGHT
DEPICTION REMAINED UNCHANGED. LOOKING AHEAD: DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS /NOVEMBER 20-24/, DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL NEARLY
NATIONWIDE. SNOW SQUALLS WILL RE-DEVELOP IN AREAS DOWNWIND OF
THE GREAT LAKES, WHILE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ON NOVEMBER 21-22,
A FAST-MOVING STORM SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION, WHILE SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS MAY FALL ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. WARM WEATHER
IN THE WEST WILL CONTRAST WITH CHILLY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
MIDWEST AND EAST.
THE CPC 6- TO 10-DAY FORECAST /NOVEMBER 25-29/ CALLS FOR THE
LIKELIHOOD OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST, WHILE
WARMER-THAN-NORMAL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTHWEST,
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, AND THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
MEANWHILE, BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
THE U.S. WILL CONTRAST WITH WETTER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS IN
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
AUTHOR: BRAD RIPPEY, U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
DROUGHT INTENSITY CATEGORIES...
D0 ABNORMALLY DRY...
D1 MODERATE DROUGHT...
D2 SEVERE DROUGHT...
D3 EXTREME DROUGHT...
D4 EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT
DROUGHT TYPES...
USED ONLY WHEN IMPACTS DIFFER...
A AGRICULTURAL...
H HYDROLOGIC.
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