644
AGUS74 KFWR 211551
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
951 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2008
VALID NOVEMBER 21 THROUGH NOVEMBER 26
...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHED OFFSHORE TEXAS THIS MORNING, BRINGING
ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL TO SOUTHERN TEXAS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DRY
AND COOL WEATHER TO THE WGRFC REGION. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE EASTERN U.S. TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. AS A RESULT, A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WGRFC BY SATURDAY. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PULL
GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD, RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE
COASTAL REGION FOR THIS WEEKEND.
FOR THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK, ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH
INTO THE WGRFC REGION ON MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY OVER EASTERN
TEXAS, WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE. BY WEDNESDAY,
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHWEST US
WITH A WARM MOIST FLOW OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF TEXAS WHERE
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
FOR TODAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING, MEAN AREAL PRECIPITATION (MAP)
AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN 0.25 INCH ARE FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
TEXAS.
FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING, NO SIGNIFICANT MAP AMOUNTS ARE
FORECAST FOR THE WGRFC AREA.
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING, MAP AMOUNTS OF 0.25 INCH TO LESS
THAN 0.50 INCH ARE FORECAST FOR THE TEXAS COAST NEAR MATAGORDA BAY.
FOR MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, NO SIGNIFICANT MAP AMOUNTS ARE
FORECAST FOR THE WGRFC AREA.
RAINFALL FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS WILL NOT GENERATE SIGNIFICANT
RUNOFF OR RIVER RISES.
...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
..NECHES BASIN
..MINOR FLOODING
THE RAINFALL EARLY LAST WEEK CAUSED A COUPLE OF LOCATIONS TO GO INTO
MINOR FLOOD. PINE ISLAND BAYOU NEAR SOUR LAKE (SOLT2) IS CURRENTLY
CRESTING IN MINOR FLOOD. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE
NECHES BASIN IN THE NEXT FIVE DAYS, SO NO ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS
EXPECTED.
..REMAINDER OF WGRFC BASINS
EASTERN AND COASTAL TEXAS REMAIN WET FROM RECENT WIDESPREAD, HEAVY
RAINFALL. ELSEWHERE, RIVERS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WGRFC AREA
WILL CONTINUE AROUND BASEFLOW CONDITIONS AS NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
THE FOLLOWING URLS (ALL LOWER CASE) PROVIDE ADDITIONAL GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION ON CURRENT AND FORECAST HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS, PAST AND
FUTURE PRECIPITATION, AND DROUGHT AND CLIMATE FORECASTS. THIS
INFORMATION IS PROVIDED BY A VARIETY OF NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE,
NOAA, AND PRIVATE SECTOR ENTITIES.
FOR SPECIFIC INFORMATION ON RIVER CONDITIONS, REFER TO THE AHPS
PAGES FROM THE LOCAL NWS OFFICES AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/RIVERS_TAB.PHP
THE FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK CAN BE VIEWED ON OUR WEBPAGE AT:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/WGRFC/FOP/WGRFCFOP.HTML
MPE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/WGRFC/PRECIP/HTML/MPE_ESTIMATES.SHTML
NATIONAL PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/RFCSHARE/PRECIP_ANALYSIS_NEW.PHP
THE FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS (QPF) CAN BE VIEWED ON OUR WEBPAGE AT:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/WGRFC/HYDROMET/QPF/QPFPAGE.HTML
THE US DROUGHT ASSESSMENT:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/EXPERT_ASSESSMENT/DROUGHT_ASSESSMENT.SHTML
ORR
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