079
AXPZ20 KNHC 212204
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI NOV 21 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.
..ITCZ
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS CENTERED ALONG 08N83W
06N95W 09N113W 07N125W 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90-120
NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 100W AND 116W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NEAR
08N128W.
..DISCUSSION
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N127W TO 20N129W. A SECOND
UPPER TROUGH IS NOTED FROM 22N120W TO 08N116W. MID/UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS AHEAD OF BOTH TROUGHS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE
ALONG 120W N OF THE EQUATOR BY LATE SAT. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
ANCHORED ON A HIGH OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN DOMINATES THE EPAC EAST
OF 105W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND THE EASTERNMOST
TROUGH IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 100W AND
116W. ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED WEST OF THE FORECAST
REGION IS PRODUCING SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA S
OF 20N W OF 120W EXCEPT ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS.
AT THE SURFACE...A 1030 MB HIGH LOCATED N OF AREA NEAR 33N135W
EXTENDS A RIDGE OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA COVERING THE AREA N OF
12N AND W OF 110W. THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING A BELT OF TRADE
WINDS IN THE 20 T0 25 KT RANGE MAINLY BETWEEN 7N AND 22N. A 1412
UTC HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT PASS CONFIRMED THESE WIND SPEEDS.
GAP WINDS...NORTHERLY WINDS IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC HAVE ONCE AGAIN REACHED GALE FORCE PER A 1230 UTC
HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING. THESE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS ANOTHER COLD
SURGE MOVES INTO THE AREA WITH WINDS INCREASING TO A STRONG GALE
WITHIN 12 HOURS THEN DIMINISHING BELOW GALE BY LATE SUN.
NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS
MAY BRIEFLY WEAKEN AND THEN INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KT LATE SAT AND
SUN.
COBB
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