889
WTNT41 KNHC 152049
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162008
500 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2008
DESPITE THE DEEP CONVECTION BECOMING NEARLY NON-EXISTANT NEAR THE
CENTER OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION...SURFACE WINDS OF 25-30 KT HAVE
BEEN REPORTED IN MUCH OF THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA THIS AFTERNOON IN
OBSERVATIONS FROM BUOY 42056...A SHIP REPORT...AND QUIKSCAT/ASCAT
PASSES. AT LEAST A PORTION OF THESE WINDS ARE DUE TO THE EFFECTS
OF A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT INDUCED BY THE MODERATE SURFACE HIGH
OVER THE SOUTHEAST US. THE SHIP H3VR DID REPORT 33 KT...BUT IT
APPEARS THAT THIS OBSERVATION MAY BE A FEW KT HIGH AFTER EXAMINING
THE SHIP'S HISTORY. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BUMPED UP SLIGHTLY TO 30
KT...EVEN THOUGH THE CENTER IS NOW INLAND OVER NE HONDURAS.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH HONDURAN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
ALLOW FOR A MORE CONFIDENT ASSESSMENT OF THE CYCLONE'S POSITION AND
MOTION - 260 DEGREES AT 6 KT. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME SPURIOUS TRACK OUTPUT FROM THE ECMWF...CONTINUES
THE CYCLONE OFF TOWARD THE WEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID TO LOW
LEVEL RIDGE DURING THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. THE FORECAST TRACK
IS BASED UPON THIS SELECTED CONSENSUS AND IS A BIT SOUTH OF AND
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
GIVEN THAT THE FORECAST TRACK...AT THIS TIME...APPEARS TO KEEP THE
CENTER OF THE CYCLONE AND MUCH OF ITS CIRCULATION OVER LAND...NO
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH
THE DECAY-SHIPS AND LGE STATISTICAL MODELS. HOWEVER...INTERACTION
OF THE CYCLONE WITH THE SURFACE HIGH TO ITS NORTH MAY CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE STRONGER WINDS THAT WOULD OTHERWISE BE EXPECTED FOR AN
INLAND TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY
FORECAST. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW
IN A DAY OR TWO AND THEN COMPLETELY DISSIPATE IN THREE DAYS. ONE
POSSIBILITY IS THAT THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF THIS CYCLONE MAY
REDEVELOP IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC OCEAN IN FOUR OR FIVE DAYS TIME.
THE MAIN RISKS FROM THIS TROPICAL DEPRESSION ARE THE HEAVY RAINS AND
POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODS THAT MAY OCCUR IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 15/2100Z 15.5N 85.4W 30 KT
12HR VT 16/0600Z 15.4N 86.4W 30 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 16/1800Z 15.3N 87.7W 25 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 17/0600Z 15.3N 88.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 17/1800Z 15.7N 89.9W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER LANDSEA/STEWART
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